Pew: Support for fracking slipping, but Keystone XL still popular

A Pew Research Center survey shows that support for hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” a technique for freeing oil and natural gas trapped within layers of shale rock, is falling among Americans.

As the graphic shows, 41 percent of Americans supported the drilling technique in the recent survey, down from 44 percent in September 2013 and 41 percent in March 2013.

fracking graphicBut the proportion opposed also decreased, from 49 percent in September 2013 to 47 percent. It’s the “I don’t know” response that’s on the upswing, from 7 percent to 12 percent.

The fracking survey was a key data point among a wide-ranging set of opinions Pew solicited from Americans on their views about the midterm elections and about political leaders of both major parties.

Construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, which would deliver oil from Canada’s oil-sands formations to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast, still enjoys majority support. According to Pew, 59 percent of respondents support its construction. But that’s down from March 2013, when 66 percent supported the project.

Currently, 83 percent of Republicans surveyed support it, compared with only 43 percent of Democrats.

 

Is Bakken crude more volatile than other kinds of oil?

The Wall Street Journal takes note of an issue that’s growing in importance: Whether crude from the Bakken oil-shale formation is more volatile, and explosive, than other kinds of crude oil that comes out of the ground.

The geological makeup of the oil is crucial to regulators who are in the process of deciding whether to impose additional restrictions on companies that transport Bakken crude by railways.

The WSJ story begins:

Regulators set to decide on crude-by-rail shipping rules are relying on testing methods that may understate the explosive risk of the crude, according to a growing chorus of industry and Canadian officials.

The tests’ accuracy is central to addressing the safety of growing crude-by-rail shipments across the continent: whether Bakken crude contains potentially dangerous levels of dissolved gases. Several trains carrying Bakken crude have exploded after derailing, including a fiery accident last year that killed 47 people in a small town in Quebec.

The North Dakota Industrial Commission is expected to decide Thursday whether to impose new rules on transporting oil on railroads. A study by the state’s Petroleum Council concluded that Bakken crude was no more volatile than other light crudes found in Texas and other fields. But the testing that went into that report might have allowed flammable gases, called light ends, to escape before the samples were collected and processed.

The U.S. Department of Transportation also has proposed new safety rules for oil by rail, including phasing out the aging tanker cars (called DOT 111) used to transport the oil within two years.

Entrepreneur Jigar Shah: ‘We need fuel choice’

Clean-energy entrepreneur Jigar Shah makes a case for investing in technology that will help the United States end its dependence on foreign oil, instead of just talking about it.

In a post for Unreasonable.is, he laments the lost opportunities: The U.S. has reduced its oil imports by 15 percent over the last two years as the country has ramped up its own oil production. But we “still imported an average 7.4 million barrels of crude oil per day during the first nine months of 2014—at a cost of more than $240 billion.”

Increasing fuel-economy standards in vehicles has gotten us only partway toward oil independence (he notes that as miles-per-gallon have vastly increased since the 1970s, so too has the weight of the cars Americans increasingly prefer: the large SUVs). He adds:

The predicted increase in oil drilling in the U.S. and Canada will get us even closer. But no matter how we slice the data, we will still depend on imported oil. Domestic drilling and fuel standards are not enough—we need fuel choice.

Shah writes that replacement fuels like methanol, hydrogen, electricity and other renewables are cheaper than gasoline or diesel.

However, the Government has not systematically put a plan in place to give American’s access to these fuels at local refueling stations. In fact, the Government regulations in place today make it difficult to add these fuel choices.

In addition to alternative fuels, vehicle efficiency technologies offer another off-ramp towards oil independence. With only one out of every seven gallons of gas being used to move the car forward, it is time to stop waging war in the Middle East and start the war against vehicle inefficiency.

He lists some interesting innovations for increasing fuel efficiency. Check them out.

Some experts say China really is serious about climate change

The reaction to President Obama’s climate-change deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping, among congressional Republicans, was swift and negative. The prevailing sentiment is that China didn’t give up as much in the bargain as the U.S., and that China isn’t likely to live up to its end of the agreement anyway.

But Mother Jones magazine quotes some experts on U.S.-China relations, and they say China is indeed serious about cutting greenhouse-gas emissions.

MJ’s James West writes:

So I asked experts on US-China relations to explain why this deal was so attractive to the leaders of two countries that have historically locked horns over everything from human rights to lingerie imports. Here’s their explanation of why China really does want to want to act on climate change, and why the bargain makes sense for President Barack Obama, as well:

China has to act on air pollution. If it doesn’t, the country risks political instability. Top Republicans have slammed the US-China deal as ineffective and one-sided. “China won’t have to reduce anything,” complained Sen. Jim Inhofe (Okla.) in a statement, adding that China’s promises were “hollow and not believable.”

But the assumption that China won’t try to live up to its end of the bargain misses the powerful domestic and global incentives for China to take action. The first, and most pressing, is visible in China’s appalling air quality. President Xi Jinping needs to act now, says Jerome A. Cohen, a leading Chinese law expert at New York University. Why? Because “the environment—not only the climate—is the most serious domestic challenge he confronts.”

Can a carbon tax capture oil’s emissions?

One of the knottiest problems for people who want to reduce carbon emissions with cap-and-trade and command-and-control regulation is that it is impossible to include motor vehicles in these schemes.

The Obama administration is now concentrating on coal plants and other stationary sources. This affects coal and possibly gas plants, but the oil industry gets off scot-free. And cars and other moving sources constitute almost half the carbon we’re putting into the atmosphere.

The idea that keeps popping up, which would deal with these difficulties and perhaps make climate issues less partisan, is a flat tax on carbon products. The tax would fall on coal, gas and oil and be collected at the mine or wellhead. $20 per ton is the number most often mentioned. Coal would pay the largest share, oil second-most and natural gas the least, since they differ in carbon content. But everything else is equal across the board. It doesn’t matter what people do with the fuel once they’ve claimed it. If you conserve energy, you burn less fuel, if you switch from high-carbon coal to natural gas. And if you discover a true alternative that doesn’t rely on fossil fuels, you pay nothing.

In theory, it’s an ideal solution. Adele Morris of the Brookings Institution has calculated that a modest carbon tax of $20 per ton would allow us to lower the corporate tax to 25 percent, just below the world average, and still leave $199 billion for deficit reduction over the 10 years. Most important, though, is that a carbon tax would capture non-stationary sources, which is the Achilles’ heel of cap-and-trade. When it comes to mobile sources of carbon, regulators just throw up their hands. “You can’t measure emissions from individual vehicles,” they say. But a carbon tax captures everyone, including cars and trucks, which are impossible to monitor as individual vehicles. In the end, it is a much better system than that now being pursued by the EPA.

So what would this mean for alternative vehicles?

Corn ethanol would be a big winner. It is not derived from fossil fuels, and it’s already in 10 percent of gasoline that is dispensed at the pump. Morris estimates that a tax of $20 per ton on carbon would mean a 4-to-5 cents per gallon increase in gasoline. E85 now undersells gasoline in the Midwest by that same amount, and a carbon tax would make it even more attractive. Other parts of the country might start taking notes as well, since E85 can be sold anywhere; it just hasn’t caught on yet.

Methanol would not have the same advantages, since it is currently made from natural gas. But gas has only about two-thirds of the carbon content of oil, and a carbon tax would work in its favor. In addition, methanol can be derived from other sources: It’s the simplest alcohol and can be distilled from municipal waste, forest wastes and any number of the other sources that now go unused.

CNG and LNG do not stand up quite as well. Both would have to pay the carbon tax but would enjoy a small advantage over diesel, became the carbon content of gas is lower. Still, they would see their own price go up, because they are fossil fuels.

Electric cars, on the other hand, would be the big winner. Their cost advantage would widen, and they would have a leg up on gasoline and diesel. Of course, electricity must come from somewhere. It is now generated largely from coal and natural gas, and prices would rise. But the tax would encourage a shift from coal to gas, or non-fossil sources, and prices would eventually come down again. Morris calculates that revenues from the tax will eventually taper off from $160 billion to $60 billion by 2030 because of adjustments in the economy.

The carbon tax has a long and curious history. Conservatives often claim credit for it under Milton Friedman’s dictum, “I you want more of something, subsidize it. If you want less of something, tax it.” The Heritage Foundation actually backed a carbon tax in the early days, when the Obama administration was trying to impose cap-and-trade on the entire economy. But other factions of the conservative movement became convinced that the Democrats would just spend the money on renewable energy projects, so Heritage backed away.

Now the ball is being carried by a group of moderates who have a reputation for viewing things with a level head. The Brookings Institution has been at the forefront, arguing that a carbon tax promises to save billions. “By providing simple, transparent, but powerful market-based incentives to reduce damaging greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this levy could supersede the array of costly regulatory command-and-control approaches and expensive subsidies aimed at reducing dependence on fossil fuels and promoting clean energy,” writes Morris for Resources for the Future, another non-partisan group. Environmental Defense Fund, another moderate group that takes sensible positions, has said a carbon tax would bring everyone “simplicity and happiness.”

The carbon tax does have its problems. It comes down particularly heavy on the poor, who pay a much larger portion of their income for things that require oil and gas. Morris suggests putting 20 percent of the tax aside and earmarking it for the poor. This undoes some of the benefits of the tax and, in practice, is very difficult to do, and it creates a new distribution problem. It also hurts the middle class and especially Middle America.

Carbon taxes have been tried in other countries, with mixed results. Australia tried to impose a blanket tax a few years ago, but by the time it stopped awarding special exemptions and dispensations, the program was such a mess that oil refineries and others were making out better than before. The tax fell particularly heavily on farmers, whose operations, it turns out, are heavily dependent on fossil fuels. On the other hand, a tax in the United States might push more of agriculture into ethanol, since E85 is already widely available in the Midwest and would substitute nicely for gasoline.

Special pleading by individual parties is always the problem. France tried a carbon tax a few years ago, but by the time they were through, the law was so loaded down with exceptions and exemptions that it was practically meaningless. Sweden, on the other hand, has a flat $200 per ton carbon tax – four times the highest rate being suggested by the U.S – and no one seems to mind. The Swedes eliminated all special exemptions and used the revenue to lower personal income and estate taxes. True, the Swedes pay a higher price for gasoline – close to $4 per gallon – but they are happy with the simplicity of the system and accept the higher price as a fact of life. Of course, Sweden is a much more egalitarian country, with few truly poor people, but the population is happy and no one complains.

And the main problem is that the amount of tax will really not introduce any behavioral change. Five cents a gallon is just a tax – it will not create any real incentive to change to alternative fuels. What is blocking off alternative fuels today is not price, as they are already cheaper. It is the monopolistic structure of the car and distribution market. Even if gas prices were a dollar higher, the market first needs to be opened to competition so people could actually choose a fuel.

A carbon tax would cross political lines and maybe prove to be one of those rare instances where we can all agree. Conservatives would show that they take climate change seriously, and liberals would have to give up on their complex regulatory schemes and admit that simplest sometimes works best. Most of all, it would show the public that things can get done in Washington. However, a prerequisite for any tax or other solution is to open the market for competition by other fuels. Otherwise, the consumer will not have any option, and it will be just a new government tax.

As lighter F-150s roll out, Ford CEO says buyers care about fuel economy

The price of gas rises and falls in cycles, but buyers of the Ford F-150, the best-selling vehicle in the United States the past three decades, have consistently had one complaint: the poor fuel economy of the truck.

Ford Motor Co. CEO Mark Fields thinks the company has solved that problem with the 2015 model F-150 now rolling off the assembly line at Ford’s plant in Dearborn, Mich. The new version is 700 pounds lighter, owing to the body consisting almost exclusively of aluminum, instead of heavier steel.

Although the truck’s gas-mileage figures won’t be announced by the company until later this month, AP’s story notes:

The company says the 2015 truck will have from 5 percent to 20 percent better fuel economy than the current version, which gets up to 23 mpg. A figure in the higher end of that range might convince some buyers to switch brands, says Jesse Toprak, chief sales analyst for the car buying site Cars.com.

Fields told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” program that better fuel efficiency has been the “biggest customer unmet need, the biggest dissatisfier” in the past.

What about the effect cheap gasoline has on buyer behavior? He was asked whether consumers care less about fuel economy when gasoline is as cheap as it has suddenly become — around $3 a gallon, or even less in some places.

“They’re much smarter these days,” Fields said, adding that prices are volatile. “Our long-term view is, over time, the price of a barrel of oil is gonna go up. It’s a non-renewable resource.”

(Photo: Ford Motor Co.)

Brent crude falls below $80 for first time since 2010

The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, dropped Wednesday below $80 for the first time since 2010.

As Financial Times points out, the price fell despite OPEC announcing that crude output had declined by about 230,000 barrels a day in October, compared with September.

But markets didn’t perceive this as a deeper change in policy and instead focused on comments made by Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Ali al-Naimi.

Mr. Naimi broke months of silence on Wednesday to speak publicly about the Gulf nation’s stance on the oil market.

He kept mum on whether Saudi Arabia would cut output to remove surplus oil from the market in response to dramatically lower Brent crude prices. However he dismissed claims that it had triggered a “price war”.

“Talk of a price war is a sign of misunderstanding, deliberate or otherwise, and has no basis in reality,” Mr Naimi said, according to Reuters. “We do not set the oil price. The market sets the prices.”

CNNMoney: $3 gasoline can’t last

CNNMoney’s Ivana Kottasova has a post today about the International Energy Agency’s warning about oil prices being too low:

It says plunging oil prices will damage the U.S. shale oil boom and cause supply problems down the road.

Oil prices have dropped by 30% in the past four months, putting oil producers under pressure. The low prices could deter investment in production, which will eventually hurt supply, the agency’s chief economist Fatih Birol said.

In its latest outlook, the IEA did say that lower oil prices could could help oil importing countries and their economies and even lead to increased demand.

But higher prices were needed to ensure future energy security.

U.S., China reach deal to cut emissions, but there are questions

President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a milestone climate-change agreement in Beijing today, under which both countries would reduce greenhouse-gas emissions to meet certain targets.

A major goal of the agreement, which still needs to be formalized, is to spur other nations to reduce their own carbon output.

But the deal already is coming under criticism: As The New York Times reports, at least one climate-change expert says China could do more on its end; the country is vowing to cut off peak emissions only at “around” the year 2030.

Republicans in Congress were swift to criticize the deal. As The Hill notes, House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio issued a statement denouncing the deal as potentially harmful to the cheap energy that middle-class families rely on.

“This announcement is yet another sign that the president intends to double down on his job-crushing policies no matter how devastating the impact for America’s heartland and the country as a whole,” the statement said.