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Arctic Leaf

Car buyers go shopping for better mileage

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With the price of oil down from about $115 to $63 since last June, the impression has been created that the auto world is once again in the hands of the oil industry, and that the gasoline engine is here to stay.

But this week at the Bloomberg New Energy Finance Conference, there was the distinct impression that alternatives to the gasoline engine are moving up so fast that within another five years we may see big changes. Bloomberg Business wrote that the result is “Future transport is likely to look a lot different than what the major oil companies are fueling now. Instead of biofuels such as ethanol and green diesel making the internal-combustion engine fit into a world with greenhouse gas limits, wholesale new solutions are coming fast.”

“Where we are is in an age of plenty,” Michael Liebreich, BNEF’s founder, told Bloomberg. “We have cheap oil, cheap gas, cheap renewables. You do have an abundance of supply in a way you haven’t had for decades. We also are in an age of competition.”

The biggest piece of news is that gasoline consumption has leveled off over the last decade and now is lower than it was in 2006. This is a remarkable development that no one knows quite how to explain. Part of it may be the lingering recession. Fleet mileage improvement has definitely made a difference, improving from 24.5 in 2001 to 31.6 today, a dramatic surge of 29 percent in 13 years. The Age of the Hummer is over, and people are being more selective in shopping for better mileage, even as the vehicles improve.

But Bloomberg Energy sees alternatively fueled vehicles also making headway in a way that is just becoming visible. Electric car sales have quintupled over the last four years, although they did start at a very low base. But battery prices are coming down as rapidly as solar-panel prices, which means that they soon will be in a range where the average American can afford them. Tesla’s 2017 debut of the Model 3, priced in the $35,000 range, is going to be a real turning point, if everything goes right.

Also coming along rapidly is the hydrogen car, which the Japanese auto industry has chosen as its alternative to gasoline. Toyota and Honda are just beginning to market their models in Japan, and BNEF anticipates there will be 4,200 on the road in Japan by 2018. But California is another big potential market, and sales are scheduled to begin there sometime late this year. The California Legislature has responded by expanding the Hydrogen Highway initiated by former government Arnold Schwarzenegger, making it easier for drivers to refuel.

Of course, all these predictions are taking place on a world scale, and there the progress may be even more rapid than in the United States. One thing Tesla discovered in its relatively abortive attempt to crack the Chinese market is that China already has a thriving electric-car industry. The cars, moreover, are not scaled-down versions of powerful sports cars but slow-moving vehicles that have been designed from the ground up.

In an article in Forbes last week, Jack Perkowski outlined what he called “China’s other electric vehicle industry:”

While the global automotive giants struggle to find a winning formula for electric vehicles, approximately 100 manufacturers in China have already identified a large potential market undiscovered by the traditional players. The common problems faced by EV automakers — high cost, driving range, and the availability of charging stations — are not issues for these manufacturers because their target customers are satisfied with low-speed and limited range EVs, as long as they provide affordable transportation. In 2014, 400,000 so-called ‘low-speed’ EVs were sold in China, compared to only 84,000 conventional all electric and hybrid electric vehicles.

To get a glimpse of the size of China’s potential market, consider this: China is already the world’s largest vehicle market, accounting for 25 percent of all vehicles manufactured globally. Yet there is only 1 vehicle per 10 people in China, whereas in the United States there are 8 for every 10 – more than one vehicle for every person of driving age. China also has another huge market for other electric vehicles. It has sold 90 million motorcycles and 120 million electric bicycles.

Estimates are that China now has a million such low-speed EVs on the road now and might reach 3 million by 2020. These cars can do about 48 miles per hour and are used for short runs around town in smaller cities, so range is not a problem. They are doing wonders for air pollution. Manufacture only began in 2006, and already some provincial governments are starting to write requirements that they be preferred to the older gasoline types.
Surprisingly, the only government entity that has been slow to embrace the low-speed EVs is the national government in Beijing. The Central Government has not counted these EVs is their official automotive statistics and is only now starting to write regulations on how crash-worthy they must be and on what roads they will be allowed to travel.

Perkowski concludes: “Low-speed EVs may not fit the stereotype of today’s modern passenger car, but in China, where incomes remain low for a large part of the country’s population, affordability often trumps those values held dear in more developed countries.”

Could China’s low-speed EVs find a market in the United States? It’s certainly possible. In any case, the anti-gasoline revolution may be coming in ways we did not anticipate.

Landon Hall

PUMP debuts on Netflix, so stream at your leisure

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PUMP the Movie is now available on Netflix, giving millions of Americans the chance to watch an important film that shows the patch forward to ending our dependence on oil.

The documentary, produced by Fuel Freedom Foundation and narrated by Jason Bateman, was originally released in theaters last September. In fact, it’s still showing on big screens around the country, as the foundation has worked with partners to host screenings on college campuses and for nonprofits.

(For a full schedule of showings, as well as movie reviews and other content, check out PUMPtheMovie.com.)

But Netflix is a whole new level. The video-on-demand service is now available in 36 percent of U.S. homes, compared with 13.5 percent for Amazon Prime and 6.5 percent for Hulu Plus. Thirty-five million people watch movies and TV shows using Netflix’s streaming service, while another 5 million still get DVDs by mail. (We have DVDs for sale too, in an attractive blue case, on our website).

PUMP charts the century-long story of oil and how it built its monopoly on the U.S. transportation-fuel industry. There are interviews with major energy and auto-industry players like John Hofmeister, former president of Shell Oil Company, and Tesla Motors founder Elon Musk.

Much of the film is dedicated to solutions to our oil addiction: For example, ethanol, which is cheaper than gasoline and burns cleaner, with fewer toxic emissions, can be made from plenty of “feedstocks” besides corn.

Here’s a clip from the film featuring alcohol-fuels expert David Blume, telling us about the possibilities:

Another voice in that snippet belongs to Marc Rauch, editor of the Auto Channel website, who says: “Ethanol is not just any competitor [to gasoline]. It is the better fuel. It has always been the better fuel.”

The point is choice: American drivers deserve more than just one. To learn how we can achieve it, in the cars, trucks and SUVs we drive today, pick up the remote and watch PUMP.

Landon Hall

The flex-fuel Dodge Charger shows you can be both green and cool

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Aaron Walsh’s first car was a 2008 Chrysler Sebring flex-fuel, meaning it could take E85 or any other ethanol blend. It was a good car.

But his new car … wow. The 2012 Dodge Charger, in Tungsten Metallic gray. Now that’s a proper car for a young man. And Walsh never would have bought it if it didn’t come in a flex-fuel version.

“That’s my biggest reason for using it,” says the student from Haslett, Mich., just east of Lansing. “I absolutely hate the petroleum industry.”

His reasons are mostly environmental: the BP spill in the Gulf, etc. “I could go into it, but it would take a long time.”

The point is, he did something about it, and that something came around the time he decided he needed a vehicle upgrade. Walsh already knew the benefits of ethanol because of his father, who works for the state of Michigan, which encourages state employees to put E85 into their flex-fuel vehicles. So right around his 21st birthday, last June, he found the Charger and its 3.6-liter Pentastar V6 engine.

“I wanted something that didn’t have to run on gasoline,” he said. “And the first thing I wanted was an electric; I was really into the Chevy Volt. But then I realized a college student doesn’t have $40,000. Then I looked and saw that the Charger is $24,000.”

Walsh, who attends Lansing Community College, says finding an E85 station isn’t difficult. “It keeps getting easier and easier,” he says. He posts his fill-up data to his Twitter feed, @gasisoutrageous (his account name is #Number1BigHero6Fan … hey, dude has other interests besides ethanol), and he regularly gets in the twenties for mpg. Also, E85 is a lot cheaper than regular gasoline at many stations in the Lansing-Haslett area. Nationally, E85 was only $1.86 a gallon Thursday, 23.7 percent cheaper than E10, according to E85Prices.com.

Price isn’t the only benefit to buying E85. Higher ethanol blends burn more cleanly and efficiently than E10 (what most of us call regular gas). Using more alcohol fuels displaces oil, strengthening the overall U.S. economy, creating domestic jobs; reducing oil consumption is better for our air, water and health.

But the price at the pump is still a big factor, and most Americans know this. Walsh knows it, and needs it. He works at a convenience store, and says his dad has been helping him out covering the cost of payments and upkeep. The vehicle is also not exactly ideal for the brutal Michigan winters, with is rear-wheel and slick tires.

But he loves it. Using ethanol doesn’t mean you can’t enjoy your car at the same time. And that roaring engine runs great on high-octane E85.

“When I started driving, whenever I would slam on the accelerator pedal, I’d just hear dollar signs. Now I like the performance. I actually bought that car just because of the engine.”

Other posts in our “Share Your Story” series:

Landon Hall

10 people who turned anger into solutions for high gas prices

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So we’ve heard from Americans who say high gas prices have disrupted their lives and their work. Let’s shift to the people who are more than mad as hell. They’re mad enough to turn their energy into action.

Among these 10 ideas, what’s the most practical for your life?

 

“I just ditched my old 1998 Volvo S70 for a used Prius, and it is so much more fun to fill a 10-gallon tank than an 18-gallon one. And have it last more than a week of heavy Los Angeles commuting. It’s still new to me, so I still kind of giggle every time I fill up the tank. I’m thrilled to put the money I save toward better things.”
— Jennifer

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“We save a lot of money in the summer because my wife takes the bus to the south side of Madison to go to work, and I pick her up in the afternoon, about 4 miles south of our home. If I was to take her to work and pick her up, it would be 48 miles round-trip, morning and afternoon. The bus is cheaper.”
— Laverne F., Madison, Wisconsin

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“As gasoline was so high for so long, I made a bio-diesel processor from a old electric water heater and made my own fuel for the oil furnace and my old 1984 GMC van with a diesel engine. I still received 21 mpg. Begging for grease was the hard part.”
— Willis W.

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“I wish I had a good story for you, but my wife and I drive a plug-in Chevy Volt. We hardly ever stop at a gas station, except perhaps once every 6 weeks or while on an occasional trip. When we top the tank, it seldom takes more than 5 1/2 gallons, i.e. less than $20 worth of premium fuel. The main reason that we stop at gas stations these days is to get an automatic car wash.”
— David and Barbara G., Gaithersburg, Maryland

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“Still wondering how to convert my 99 Ford Expedition to NG?”
— Gary S., Laguna Woods, California

(We’re checking around to find a SoCal CNG conversion business. Will update later.)

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“I have not visited a gas station since September 2014, when I took delivery of my Tesla. However, I still pay for my daughter’s gasoline, suffer the financial cost, and contribute to the oil industry’s wanton environmental degradation. Savings at the pump could help me fund her college education.”
— Dr. George

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“Go electric. I did and am receiving my Tesla next week. No more gas at all.”
— Bob

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“Today we bought a 2014 Ford Focus, a flex-fuel vehicle which enables us to use E85 for fuel. A small contribution to energy independence.”
— David

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“We need a blender pump [for ethanol] in every station.”
— Melvin M.

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“I top off my cars with E85 when I can. I fill up once a month with a discount at Kroger. I am really pushing to get Kroger to provide ETHANOL pumps and shop at the same place!”
— Gerard R., Stone Mountain, Georgia

 

Incidentally, here’s a handy guide to flex-fuel vehicles on the market.

Landon Hall

‘If they raise gas prices, they should be raising the salaries’

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Last week we shared stories from people whose quality of life has been affected by the unpredictable ebb and flow of gasoline prices. Visit our Facebook page and read the great discussion riffing on our last post, about Troy Harper in Missouri, to get an idea of how hot-button an issue this has become.

Today we’re passing along sentiments about the work Americans do and how the cost of fuel makes that tougher.

Some workers get paid by the hour, others are salaried, and still others are in business for themselves. Gas prices take a bite every time.

Here are a few of the responses we’ve received:

 

“I have to work one and half days just to fill my car, just to get to my job. That’s what I spend a week. If they raise gas prices, they should be raising the salaries.”
— Jose G., Streamwood, Illinois

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“My wife and I both work at different times of the day, so we can’t carpool, and driving two cars every day gets too costly, at $3 to $4 a gallon. Not only us, but everybody that has to work has to give up something in order to make ends meet.”
— James

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“As a business owner (lawn maintenance), even a few cents per gallon makes a big difference in my profit margin. My company uses approximately 100 to 130 gallons per week, sometimes more. So the cost of fuel has a large bearing on our workload. Lower prices would really help our bottom line.”
— Keith M., Boca Raton, Florida

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“Gas prices affect me and my job, where most of my profits go toward fuel prices, [since] I’m on the road most of my time. Please lower the gas prices so we can get more out of our earnings, to spend more on family needs. There is no reason to have such high gas prices.”
— Frank C., Rancho Cucamonga, California

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“I am a self-employed courier. I work only part-time now, but the price of fuel for my car has a big impact on my business. You just don’t make as much. With high fuel, prices everything goes up in America. Were are an economy on wheels, as you can tell with all the over-the-road trucks out there today. Fuel affects almost everything and makes it much more difficult to earn a living.”
— Flip P., York, Pennsylvania

 

Related posts:

 

 

Landon Hall

Missouri dad perfectly sums up the frustration of volatile gas prices

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Recently we started asking Americans to share their stories about the true cost of unpredictable gas prices. We got an earful.

But out of all the dozens of submissions we received — some only a sentence, others full-on essays — perhaps no one expressed that collective frustration better than Troy Harper of Independence, Missouri.

Here’s what he wrote:

“I used to have a pickup truck [a green 1981 Ford F-series Explorer] with dual tanks. I could usually fill it up for about 30 bucks. That was back when I was in my early 20s, somewhere in 1993 or ‘94. I can remember complaining about the gas prices then. Oh, if only could only go back and warn myself about what was gonna take place in my future, I’d sink every penny I had into crude oil. Because from there on, fuel prices continually increased! Before long it was 3 bucks a gallon and beyond that. It never hit $4 a gallon for regular, but if you wanted mid-grade or super-clean, you were basically paying in blood.

“I got married and had a family, 1996-’97. We had two kids about four years apart. I worked a full-time job had to get a car in order to get around and get back and forth to work. We went on vacations and went to see our families and camped out and went fishing and to the drive-in theater all the time, when we could. But as fuel prices got higher and higher, those trips became fewer and fewer. With the price of fuel rising, the price of everything else rises: food, clothing, household necessities, everything.

“I drove a truck for a produce company [Original DeFeo Produce], locally … I delivered fruits and vegetables to grocery stores and restaurants. Diesel prices were ridiculous. The prices of our products were forever increasing, a fuel surcharge was eventually imposed on our customers, just to cover fuel prices. At almost 5 bucks a gallon it was becoming a huge problem. Our customers’ businesses were seeing less and less business, yet the prices kept increasing. I watched several of these businesses eventually close their doors for good. Even the company I was working for went out of business in March of 2013. It had been in business in downtown Kansas City, Missouri, for over a hundred years. It was family owned and had thrived for a long time, but with the economy bottoming out and our customers closing, it was inevitable. I like to believe that fuel prices played a major role in that factor. As it did in all our lives.

“Currently, the prices have been relatively cheaper. As of today, at a Shell station I saw it for $2.20 a gallon in Independence, Missouri. That’s much better, but I don’t know how long those prices will last.”

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To learn what you can do about volatile gasoline prices, check out our Take Action page. Among the list of choices, watch the movie PUMP on DVD, instantly on iTunes or Amazon, or coming to a college

Landon Hall

Here’s what Americans are telling us about the price of gas

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We asked, and you delivered.

At the start of our “Share Your Story” campaign, Fuel Freedom Foundation sent out the call: Tell us how volatile gasoline prices, which peak and plunge without warning or explanation, affect your daily life.

We got dozens of responses, from all age groups and all regions of the country. Here are some of the best:

 

 “I would love cheaper gas prices, because my boyfriend and I share my van, and several days a week, I have to drive him to work, then go back home, run errands, or take kids to school, then go back and get him later. It takes a lot of gas to do that.”
— Eileen N., Selma, N.C.

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“I can’t raise my wage whenever I want. It’s hard to budget when you know they will raise the price every week — just ’cause they can, I guess.”
— Tim H., Coldwater, Michigan

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“Fuel prices are the only thing in my budget that I can’t consistently account for … it’s infuriating.”
— Manny L., Daly City, California

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“My new granddaughter lives in Odessa, and I can’t afford to take my medications AND go to see her on my fixed income. Groceries and goods are transported to stores by truck, and higher fuel prices are passed on to the consumer by increased food and goods prices. My dollar isn’t worth as much with the higher fuel prices. If gas goes up to $4 a gallon again, I will barely afford food and clothing, much less any traveling to see my granddaughter. Our economy will suffer greatly if fuel prices don’t stabilize around $2 a gallon or less.”
— Gary S., Rowlett, Texas

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“I spend about $300 to $500 a month in fuel. There are some months that we are struggling to pay for food. The trade-off is that the rent is cheaper the further you are from the city, but the gas is killing us.”
— Abe F.

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“I’m on SSDI [Social Security Disability Insurance]. When fuel prices go up or stay high, it’s really simple to explain: I have less food to eat, and I might not be able to buy all my medicine. I have also had to cancel some appointments. Sometimes doctors have to be put off for a later date!”
— Steven D., Des Plaines, Illinois

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“I drive a car with 40 miles to the gallon, and I am still struggling with gas prices. Especially soaring gas prices in Arizona. During the Super Bowl, gas prices dropped to $1.70 a gallon. It was such a stress relief having to pay $15 to fill up my gas tank for the week. But after that week was over, gas prices went up to $2.49 in just a week. It is unfair that big companies do this to people. I can’t even imagine how people live with bigger engines. Having to shovel $80 for a tank that lasts a week.”
— Thomas M., Phoenix

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“Gas prices have kept me from seeing my brother, who is 75 years old and lives 240 miles from me. He won’t be around forever, but the jerks screwing us with high gas prices will. I hope they someday get judged on making travel for the retired so hard. They need to lose all their money and see what it’s like.”
— Calvin

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We’ll be posting more responses over the next week or so. If you’re wondering what you can do about the unending rollercoaster of oil and gas prices, there’s plenty, so visit our Take Action page, where you can learn more about our mission to reduce oil consumption. You can sign our petition asking major fueling retailers, like Costco, to offer consumers alternative fuels.

Also, check out our companion site, which is all about the stupendously great documentary film PUMP.

Arctic Leaf

Fake and real news: Links between GHG reduction and alternative fuels

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FT-emissions-graphicTurn on your local news every night and you’ll need a sleeping pill to get some rest. The format and content is the same around the country: a lot of tragic crime — ranging from sexual harassment, robbery and shootings — for about ten minutes; local sports for about 5 minutes; what seems like ten minutes of intermittent advertising; silly banter between two or more anchors for two minutes; and a human-interest story to supposedly lighten up your day at the very end of the show — likely about a dog and cat who have learned to dance together or a two-year-old child who already knows how to play Mozart. You get the picture!

Local news, as presently structured, is not about to send you to sleep feeling good about humanity, never mind your community or nation. National news is really only marginally better. Again, the first ten minutes, more often than not, are about environmental disasters in the nation or the world — hurricanes, volcanoes, cyclones and tornadoes. The second ten minutes includes maybe one or two tragically laced stories, more often than not, about fleeing refugees, suicide bombings, dope and dopes and conflict. Finally, at the end of the program, for less than a minute or two, there is generally a positive portrayal of a 95-year-old marathon runner or a self-made millionaire who is now single-handedly funding vaccinations for kids in Transylvania after inventing a three-wheeled car that will never need refueling and can seat twenty-five people.

Maybe this is how the world is! We certainly need to think about the problems and dangers faced by our communities, the nation and its citizens. Every now and then, Americans complain about the media’s emphasis on bad news. But their complaints are rarely recorded precisely in surveys of viewership. We criticize the primary emphasis on bad news, but seem to watch it more than good news. Somewhat like football, we know it causes emotional and physical injuries to players, but support it with the highest TV ratings and attendance numbers.

Jimmy Fallon, responding to the visible (but likely surface) cry for more good news, has added a section to The Tonight Show. He delivers fake, humorous news, which is, at times, an antidote to typical TV or cable news shows. Perhaps John Oliver, a rising comedian on HBO, does it even better. He takes real, serious news about human and institutional behavior that hurts the commonweal and makes us laugh. In the process, we gain insight.

This week’s news about carbon dioxide emissions “stalling” in 2014 for the first time in 40 years appeared in most newspapers (I am a newspaper junkie) led by The New York Times and the Financial Times. It seemed like good news! Heck, while the numbers don’t reflect a decline in carbon emissions, neither do they illustrate an increase. Let’s be thankful for what we got over a two-year period (in the words of scientists — stability, or 32.3bn tons a year).

But don’t submit the carbon stability numbers to Jimmy Fallon just yet. It’s much too early for a proposed new segment on The Tonight Show called “Real as Opposed to Fake, Good News.” Too much hype could convince supporters of efforts to slow down climate change that real progress is being made. We don’t know yet. Recent numbers only reflect no carbon growth from the previous year over a 12-month period. The numbers might be only temporary. They shouldnt lessen the pressure to define a meaningful fair and efficient strategy to lower GHG. If this occurs, yesterday’s good news will become a real policy and environmental problem for the U.S. and the world for many, many tomorrows.

I am concerned that the stability shown in the carbon figures may be related to factors that might be short lived. Economists and the media have attributed the 2014 plateau to decreases in the rate of growth of China’s energy consumption and new government policies, as well as regulations on economic growth in many nations (e.g., requirements for more energy-efficient buildings and the production of more fuel-efficient vehicles), the growth of the renewable energy sector and a shift to natural gas by utilities.

Truth be told, no one appears to have completed a solid factor analysis just yet. We don’t really know whether what occurred is the beginning of a continuous GHG emission slowdown and a possible important annual decrease.

Many expert commentators hailed the IEA’s finding, including its soon-to-be new director, Dr. Fatih Birol. He indicated that this is “a very welcome surprise…for the first time, greenhouse gas emissions are decoupling from economic growth.”

Yet, most expert commentators suggest we should be careful. They noted that the data, while positive, is insufficient to put all our money on a bet concerning future trends. For example, Hal Harvey, head of Energy Innovation, indicated, “one year does not a trend make.”

Many articles responding to the publication of the “carbon stall” story, either implicitly or explicitly, suggested that to sustain stability and move toward a significant downward trend requires a national, comprehensive strategy that includes the transportation sector. It accounts for approximately 17 percent of all emissions, probably higher, since other categories such as energy use, agriculture and land use have murky boundaries with respect to content. Indeed, a growing number of respected environmental leaders and policy analysts now include vehicle emissions as well as emissions from gasoline production and distribution as a “must lower” part of a needed comprehensive national, state and local set of emission reduction initiatives, particularly,if the nation is to meet temperature targets. Further, there is an admission that is becoming almost pervasive: that renewable fuels and renewable fuel powered vehicles, while supported by most of us, are not yet ready for prime time.

While ethanol, methanol and biofuels are not without criticism as fuels, they and other alternative fuels are better than gasoline with respect to emissions. For example, the GREET Model used by the federal government indicates that ethanol (E85) emits 22.4 percent less GHG emissions (grams per mile) when compared to gasoline (E10). The calculation is based on life-cycle data. Other independent studies show similar results, some a higher, others a lower percent in reductions. But the important point is that there is increased awareness that alternative fuels can play a role in the effort to tamp down GHG.

So why, at times, are some environmentalists and advocates of alternative fuels at loggerheads. I suspect that it relates to the difference between perfectibility and perfection. Apart from those in the oil industry who have a profit at stake in oil and welcome their almost-monopoly status concerning retail sales of gasoline, those who fear alternatives fuels point to the fact that they still generate GHG emissions and the assumption, that, if they become competitive, there will be less investment in research and development of renewables. Yes! Alternative fuels are not 100 percent free of emissions. No! Investment in renewables will remain significant, assuming that the American history of innovation and investment in transportation is a precursor of the future.

Putting America on the path to significant emission reduction demands a strong coalition between environmentalists and alternative fuel advocates. Commitments need to be made by public, private and nonprofit sectors to work together to implement a realistic comprehensive fuel policy; one that views alternative fuels as a transitional and replacement fuel for vehicles and that encompasses both alternative fuels and renewables. Two side of the same policy and behavior coin. President Franklin Roosevelt, speaking about the travails of the depression, once said, “All we have to fear is fear itself.” His words fit supporters of both alternative fuels and renewables. Let’s make love, not war!

Arctic Leaf

Ethanol at the crossroads

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During an 18-month stretch, from June 2013 to December 2014, American-made ethanol was riding high. The industry produced 13.9 billion gallons and was making 63 cents per gallon, for an annual profit of $8.8 billion.

Then oil prices collapsed. The results have not been good for ethanol. Sales have been squeezed and profit margins have almost disappeared entirely. Ethanol producers must keep their price below the rate of gasoline, and that has become difficult. After gasoline fell below $2 per gallon in some places, ethanol was squeezed right out of the market. Instead of buying ethanol, refiners purchase Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), which give them credit for putting ethanol into their blends. RINs have gained 36 percent in the past year, to 71.9 cents a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which shows how they have become a popular method of avoiding ethanol purchases.

As a result, major refiners are either throttling back or closing some of their higher-cost operations completely. The Valero Energy Corporation and Green Plains Renewable Energy, which together make up about 15 percent of U.S. ethanol capacity, have reduced their operations, according to Bloomberg. At a typical mill in Illinois, profit margins have virtually vanished after netting $1.33 per gallon only a year ago, according to AgTrader Talk, an Iowa consulting company. As a result, U.S. ethanol output fell 4.6 percent to an annualized rate of 14.5 billion gallons, from a record of 15.2 billion gallons, for the week ending Feb. 20, according to the Energy Information Administration.

All this illustrates how vulnerable ethanol will be if the Environmental Protection Agency ever gets around to publishing its “renewable fuel mandate” for last year or this. The EPA is supposed to issue a number each year for the amount of ethanol that will be incorporated into gasoline sales, in accordance with a 2007 law. But last year, with gasoline consumption actually declining because of economic weakness and improved fleet mileage, it became obvious that ethanol consumption could not reach the mandated level of 14.2 billion gallons without going over the mythical “blend wall” of 10 percent, at which point ethanol might damage some older engines. Most cars sold since 2004 can tolerate higher blends, and there are pumps where 85 percent ethanol is available. Still, the EPA has remained reluctant to abandon its conservative position and has tried to reconcile the 10 percent figure with declining gasoline consumption. Even the current 14.5- billion-gallon annual target would exceed the blend wall, and the EPA is in danger of sticking the country with too much ethanol. Inventories already stand at 21.6 million barrels, the highest level since 2012.

Added into all this is the price of corn, which remains the most widely used feedstock for U.S.-made ethanol. Last year the price of corn reached $8 per bushel and averaged $4.43 for the year. Ethanol refiners were still able to absorb the price because gas prices remained so high. But now gasoline prices have fallen by 50 percent, while the price of corn has only declined 19 percent, to $3.75 per bushel. Ethanol refiners say corn must reach $3.25 per bushel before they can make any money.

Chuck Woodside, CEO of KAAPA Ethanol and former president of the Renewable Fuels Association, says 2015 is looming as a critical year for ethanol. “We’re coming off a phenomenal 2014, and the industry as a whole did well,” he told the Kearney (Neb.) Hub newspaper. But “there are a lot of things yet to be determined about 2015.” Among them are how much drivers will increase their gasoline consumption (taking advantage of lower prices); whether more E15 and E85 pumps can be installed around the country; and whether the EPA will ever make up its mind on the Renewable Fuel Standard. There is even some question now of whether the EPA or Congress has the authority to set the RFS.

“The price of diesel has not fallen commensurate with the price of oil,” Woodside added. That only drives up the costs for ethanol plants, which use diesel-burning trucks and railroads to transport the product.

One bright spot has been the export market, in which American ethanol has been gaining ground. Demand has come particularly from Brazil, where 25 percent of all vehicles must run on 25 percent ethanol. Brazil has been under pressure to slow deforestation in the Amazon Basin, where most of its sugarcane ethanol is produced. China has also been a growing market for American ethanol products.

But refiners now agree that the best solution to the ethanol surplus would be to increase the number of pumps around the country that can dispense the E85 blend. That would produce a demand that would easily absorb all the ethanol American refiners could produce.

Fuel Freedom Staff

Oil makes biggest monthly jump since 2009

Source: Reuters
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Reuters reports that crude oil rose sharply on the last trading session of February, posting its first monthly gain since June.

Brent crude LCOc1 rose $2.53 to $62.58 a barrel. February’s 18 percent gain was the biggest monthly percentage rise since May 2009.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the oil-field services company Baker Hughes saw its rig count fall by 33 this week, to 986, dropping below 1,000 for the first time since 2011. The count is off 31 percent from the same time a year ago.

And yet:

… analysts caution a reduction in the number of U.S. oil rigs in use doesn’t immediately translate to a fall in output, which is currently running at a multiyear high of 9.3 million barrels a day.